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Bond Agoraphobia

Written By: Tom Hankes  |  Posted: Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

         The Crowds Are Making Me Nervous

        "Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded" is a paraprosdokian quote attributed to Yogi Berra.  It's a good quote to keep in mind with respect to the treasury markets, which are getting increasingly crowded.  In September 2010 I wrote "Treasury Tulips" pointing out how treasury bonds were trading at very high prices and very low yields when compared to historical data.  As it turned out, my crystal ball was malfunctioning and my call was too early; at the time 10 and 30 year treasury yields were 2.77% and 3.85% respectively - about half historical levels.  Prices were high and yields were low but it got worse. It now appears that yields may finally have bottomed in July of this year, checking in with yield lows of 1.43% and 2.46% in July.

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