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Why the Polls Are All Wrong

Written By: Dan Truitt  |  Posted: Wednesday, September 26th, 2012

            As the evidence grows that the mainstream media is fighting almost as hard for an Obama victory as the Obama campaign itself, there seems to be a growing fear and resignation from those with a more conservative point of view about the inevitability of four more years of hope and change. There is, however, no foundation in reality about this fear and resignation. "But the polls show Obama consistently ahead in the swing states," you might say.

            Here's the problem with that thought. The polls are lying to us. And here's why. The key bit of information that almost all polls are leaving out is the difference, as a percentage of the electorate, between registered Democrats and registered Republicans. All polls, with the exception of Rasmussen Reports, oversample Democrats by anywhere from 3 to 15 percentage points. Rasmussen (who, by the way, predicted the outcome of the '08 election to within .1 of a percentage point) is the only major pollster oversampling Republicans, thus reflecting the true state of the electorate in 2012.

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