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Libya's Uncertain Future

Written By: Chad Groening and Russ Jones  |  Posted: Monday, September 12th, 2011

            A national defense analyst and Pentagon advisor thinks Americans should hold off on celebrating the apparent end of Moammar al-Gaddafi's regime in Libya because plenty of indications suggest the new government will not support the United States or its allies.

            World leaders have already begun planning for Libya's future without the man who held power there for 42 years. After six months of fighting, premiers throughout Europe have welcomed the rebels' advances into Tripoli, the Libyan capitol. Meanwhile, several countries have already recognized the rebels' National Transitional Council as the sole representative of Libya's people.
            Retired Army Lt. Col. Bob Maginnis is senior fellow for national security at the Family Research Council (FRC). He says the U.S. needs to hold off on the celebrations until the new government emerges.
            "Look at what happened to Egypt. Naively, this administration celebrated Egyptian freedoms, only to find now a major upsurge in Islamic activity," Maginnis notes. "Egypt's going in the wrong direction. There's absolutely no reason to believe that Libya will go in a direction that's favorable to the United States."
            And he believes Syrian President Bashar Assad could be the next dictator to fall.
            "Over the last six months, we've seen radical violence against the citizenry, but the Obama administration kept making excuses and sending senior envoys over there to work out deals of some type with them," the FRC senior fellow reports. "I suspect that maybe if there is an internal revolution ... even Assad could go."
            But he concludes that no one should be optimistic about the future governments coming out of the so-called "Arab spring."

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