Turnout, Not Polling, Will Determine 2010 Outcome

Written By: Dick Morris  |  Posted: Wednesday, October 27th, 2010

With the Internet, we have all become fixated on that day's polling, following the most minute changes in the swing districts on Realclearpolitics.com. But we are overstating the importance of polling in determining the outcome of the coming elections. (Odd thought coming from me!) The fact is that while Republicans lead in 53 House seats now held by Democrats and are within five points in 20 more, the margins are very thin. In only 14 Democratic seats is the Republican leading by 10 points or more. In all the other districts, it is turnout that will determine the victor.

Going into the election, it would seem that the GOP has a big advantage in turning out voters. Not only is its secret weapon - the tea parties - outworking and out-hustling the Democrats, but polls show that Republicans are twice as enthusiastic about voting as are Democrats. All indications from the field suggest a big GOP turnout, while Democrats tend to stay at home.

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