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Is the Economy Slowly Gaining Momentum?

Written By: Bob Adelmann  |  Posted: Monday, January 2nd, 2012

            Zachary Karabell, writing at The Daily Beast on Thursday, claimed that the latest numbers on the US's economy were showing some modest improvement. After reviewing comments from the Federal Reserve in their final statement of the year (the economy is "expanding moderately"), the Institute for Supply Management (index above 50 for several months, indicating growth), the Gross Domestic Product numbers (growing at about 2 percent on an annual basis), unemployment (dropping slightly), and consumer sentiment (up a little), Karabell concluded "The real dirty little secret of the American economy is that we are doing OK."

            Some other numbers that came in after his article was published seemed to confirm that the economy is showing a faint blush of rose. The National Retail Federation said it expects Christmas holiday sales to rise to $469 billion this year, up about 4 percent from their October forecast, but still down from the 5.2 percent gain a year ago. The latest from the Association of American Railroads shows weekly traffic gains of nearly 4 percent year over year. The Business Outlook Survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank showed that "all the broad indicators remained positive and suggest a modest expansion of activity…[and] the broadest indicator of future activity reflected a trend of increased optimism about growth over the next six months." That report noted further that hiring expectations in that region are beginning to improve as well, along with indicators for growth in "general activity, new orders [and] shipments..."

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